Apple Earnings

Andy Zaky has a good forecast for Apple earnings of $1.33 in EPS and $7.587 billion in revenue.(1) Apple's run up has gotten people nervous, some guessing that there will be a sharp fall if they miss, others making good and bad comparisons to Google. Veldemir on Yahoo Finance says it's a setup.(2)

Google high was 747 and got whacked down to 412. (45% decrease).

Apple's high was 200 and got whacked down to 115 (42.5% decrease).

Now GOOG is at 540 which is 28% off it's high.
Apple is at 161 which is 19% off it's high.

He argues that Apple will be knocked down to 28% off it's high, or somewhere around 144 after earnings.

Fortune's Apple 2.0 blog has a nice spreadsheet of analysts who have recently upped their estimates for Apple EPS and revenues.(3)

My guess is that Apple will follow the market for the next two days, closing down to allow for profit taking and uncertainty before earnings. Apple will blast through earnings, lead by international iPhone sales and a surprising beat on U.S. iPhone sales and a large beat on total Mac sales around the world. And the stock will reach 205 or higher by the end of the week. Then it will slowly dribble down again through the summer, only to reach new highs when the new iPhone and iPhone applications are released sometime in June. Overall, a rollercoaster ride, hard to time, but fun to ride.

1. Apple Set to Significantly Beat Analysts Q2 2008 Earnings Estimates
2. It's a setup folks
3. Analysts scramble to raise Apple estimates