Projections

Last week Alcoa and UPS announced earnings that fell below analyst expectations and GE posted a decline in earnings. AMD announced layoffs and poor sales, and the S&P slipped to 1332.83.

However, for all the bad news, I believe there is still potential in technology. Alcoa, AMD, and UPS are not good measures for tech (although the case can be made for UPS deliveries of online purchases). Two weeks ago Oracle missed but RIMM beat profit expectations by nearly 15%, setting the tone for choppy Q1 earnings. I think we'll see a lot of up and down in this market, but overall, I hope (and here's where I worry) that AAPL will continue to be positive. I worry about hoping because I know that it's the worst thing to do in a market.

But I don't believe we will really know the effect broad-based earnings declines have on technology in general until Intel reports on the 15th, followed by IBM and Ebay on the 16th, and Google on the 17th. Only then can we really see where Apple will go.

It looks like if Apple does better than expected, but still warns for Q3, it may hold at 160 after earnings, but I don't expect to see a jump of more than 5% of whatever it is before earnings, mostly likely 145-150, if it compares to RIMM's price action after earnings. If next week is bad, I expect Apple to hold at 145 or so, but that may be wishful thinking. It could go below 140. Still, after options expiration on Friday, it could start going up again as traders place earnings bets, and even if it doesn't have much action after earnings, the Fed will most likely cut 50 bps at the end of the month and provide a boost to the market. I expect AAPL could reach 170 if we're lucky, or at least 165. So May calls are good if you can stomach the risk. However, give yourself the extra month and go into July.

I expect Intel to surprise us with good earnings, countering the AMD disappointment. I don't think we've seen the last of the good news in tech, although you should take you r profits for the summer soon after it happens. Buy back in September.

The opinions above are my own, based on Yahoo news, charts, and Bloomberg. Please do your own research.

Sources:
1. Bloomberg: U.S. Stocks Drop After General Electric's Surprise Profit Miss
2. Earnings.com: IBM
3. Earnings.com: INTC
4. Earnings.com: GOOG
5. Earnings.com: EBAY
6. Earnings.com: AAPL
7. Bloomberg: European Stocks Fall; STMicroelectronics, TomTom, Barratt Drop
8. U.S. Stocks Gain, Led by Retailers, Technology; Wal-Mart Rises
9. Research In Motion Gains as Forecasts Top Estimates (Update5)
10. SAP Shares Decline as Oracle Sales Miss Estimates (Update1)

Posted to Yahoo! AAPL message board.